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:: Volume 5, Issue 17 (6-2015) ::
2015, 5(17): 83-104 Back to browse issues page
Business Cycles of Iran's Economy Duration 1368-1389
Abolghasem Golkhandana
Abstract:   (2358 Views)
Economic planning is needed more than ever considered After the Islamic Revolution, and especially after the war years. In this context, knowledge of the business cycles that represents of national production process is very important. Studies about business cycles mainly concentrated around two main axes, one, and identification of the factors influencing the formation of the recession and boom cycles in economic and other statistical indexes analysis related to business cycles, such as the amplitude, steepness and duration. In this paper business cycles over the period of 1368-1389 using quarterly and annual data, both aspects have been analyzed. In order to use the HP statistical filter, has been detected four business periods of time that is during the early stage of the fifth period. The average duration of boom and recession cycles almost equal, but was more the amplitude and steepness of cycles of boom than cycles of recession. Estimated VAR model using the advance of the main variables affecting real GDP shows oil revenues and total government spending could have the greatest impact on business cycles fluctuations.
Keywords: Iran's Economy, Business Cycles, Hodrick-Prescott Filter, Vector Auto Regressive.
Full-Text [PDF 276 kb]   (2776 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: اقتصاد ایران
Received: 2015/04/19 | Accepted: 2015/07/21 | Published: 2015/07/21
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Golkhandana A. Business Cycles of Iran's Economy Duration 1368-1389. Economic Development Research. 2015; 5 (17) :83-104
URL: http://jrer.ir/article-1-333-en.html


Volume 5, Issue 17 (6-2015) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه تحقیقات توسعه اقتصادی Journal of Economic Development  Research
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